esrosedotblog

I have put Nate Silver's blog on my daily mix.

Five Thiry Eight

538 is the number of electoral votes up for grabs.

What tipped me over was the entry of Mark Rubio into the GOP race.

I am not a fan of any particular candidate this year although, for now, it has to be Hillary Clinton.

Will any Democrat have the balls to buck the Clintons? I doubt it.

They might put a few stalking horses out there to feel the heat of some electoral mojo but for the most part I think she has it if she wants it. And, a big one, if she doesn't fuck up.

Remember the Clintons have a lingering death wish. All we need is for Bill to get his fingers caught in some finger pie somewhere. Or who knows?

It is all fun anyway as I am not all that invested. For now.

Anyway, later on, Silver will have the best stats and commentary on the running(s). Indispensable for even a casual fan of the process.

Give him a try.

He is also a certified out of the closet homo so there is a brotherhood component to my fandom. A geek fairy.

Labels: election, polls

We are entering the lists.

You know. Those jousting lists.

It is time to rev up the campaign which means looking for the dirty tricks and pre-game psyching out that precedes the Big One.

Of course we are hardly through the mid term elections. But that is just a passing phase. The 2016 looms. And, in my time, there has never been so much uncertainty. Even the certain has been unsettled.

Clinton's poll numbers have been plummeting. The latest Marist poll shows this. She "no longer has the support of a majority of 2016 voters, according to the poll, but still comes in ahead when pitted against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul"....AP report.

But this is not too interesting. No one expects any one but Hillary to be the Democratic nominee. Of course, a lot could happen but with the Clintons holding on tight, you can bet that it will all be the usual show. Sniping and bitching about the Clintons.

Always. Even me. Well, especially me. I didn't like them the last time and I don't like them much better this time. But it is the old chestnut again about how she might be a pain in the ass but she is our pain in the ass. I will not go there today although I already did, I guess.

The interesting one is in the GOP. The GoOPers.

Look at who is named in that quote above: "...when pitted against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul". There is one missing. The inestimable ego. Rick Perry. The Texas cowboy.

I have never taken Rick Perry seriously but he is a fly in the Republican ointment and could cause some trouble. That is why I think that some work was just done to do him in before it gets serious.

Texas Governor Indicted Over Effort to Remove Official

The Democrats inflicted this wound on him. But the GOP side must be happy to have something to paste on Rick. An indictment is just an indictment but in politics in this country it is a stain which will not come out. Rick Fucking Perry. Your ticket has been punched. Go from whence you came.

Labels: election, GOP, hillary, Perry

DONE DONE AND DONE

The Mahogany Boxes Hold No Surprises From the Electoral College

Like little coffins. Mahogany boxes carrying the votes to be counted.

This is the very last step before he takes the oath later this month.

I love all this paraphernalia of getting the election done.

And he ended up with 332 to the Mitter's 206. A rout.

Here back in the fall, Jim Messina describes the path to the electoral college win. Just for old times' sake.

And the fat lady is singing in other respects as well.

Obama's Popular Vote Totals Put Him In a Small Club.

Topping 51% twice.

Only Andrew Jackson, Ulysses S. Grant, William McKinley, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and now, Barack Obama.

A small club indeed.

Look at this pre-election bullshit.

Labels: election, Re-election of Barack Obama

RUINING SHOTS

I love Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.

Here he is at the last debate spin room. There is a lot of good stuff in here. Hang in. He manages to get McCain to give his best "get off my lawn" take. And the jokes are great.

It is fun to watch some people go with it and others who can't handle it or don't get it.

Labels: debate, election, general election 2012

MORE

These are my sentiments exactly.

Stolen outright from Steve Benen at the Maddow Blog and sundry others. Grand theft--blogging.

This is admittedly only a sampling, but this piece from New York's Jon Chait caught my eye: Romney won the debate in no small part because he adopted a policy of simply lying about his policies. Probably the best way to understand Obama's listless performance is that he was prepared to debate the claims Romney has been making for the entire campaign, and Romney switched up and started making different and utterly bogus ones. As did this one from Rolling Stone's Tim Dickinson: Mitt Romney turned in a polished performance in last night's presidential debate – and revealed himself to be an accomplished and unapologetic liar. In an evening where he sought to slice and dice the president with statistics, Romney baldly misrepresented his own policy prescriptions, made up numbers to fit his attacks and buried clear contrasts with the president. CNN's David Gergen, hardly a liberal, was thinking along the same lines as Chait, saying last night he thinks Obama was surprised that Romney was "flat out lying" during the debate. Plenty of others were thinking along the same lines. Romney's critics should probably keep expectations low, but if this line of criticism starts to catch on, it could, in theory, step on the Republican's post-debate glow. In fact, the tactics that led to the win could even backfire, doing more harm than good.

Labels: election, Re-election of Barack Obama

DEEP IN THE RESULTS

Did you know that you can win a debate and still be viewed as a sleezy con artist?

Did you know that many of the negatives for Obama in overnight polls were from progressives who want him, again, to be a prick and attack all the time?

I felt better today after reading this mix of details. You know, there is the surface picture and then the deeper.

Why I'm Not Worried

It gave me a calmer stomach.

Labels: election, Re-election of Barack Obama, Romney

PROPPED OUT

Did I mention that we have voted in the California Primary which is tomorrow?

Almost everyone here now votes by mail.

There were a lot of local candidates, many which I do not have adequate information about.

Judges, regional school administrators, water boards and the like. When I do not know who to go for, I vote against the incumbent. I just figure that in an imperfect world the guys who are in might well be out. Change is good.

We have a lot of non-partisan positions here so party is not a help.

In the big marquee races, Senator, it is pretty clear who to go for. Feinstein. Although I don't much like her positions there in the right center, much of the time, she beats the GOoPer all hollow.

The Representative is, again, whoever is not Mary Bono Mack. The rubber stamp Rep. Always was and always will be.

We have three Propositions. If in doubt, I always vote "no" on Props and I am always in doubt. It is hard to figure which special interests are trying to pull a fast one so I throw the rascal's Props out.

I differ from Kevin Drum who is voting for term limits.

California Propositions.

I don't like term limits. Period. Sure, it allows power centers to collect but I don't much like government by newbie either. Look at the House of Representatives in DC.

We agree on popular vote managing of finances. Besides, pity the poor smoker for a change.

This is a continuation of the social engineering which I oppose.

And, oh yeah! We got to vote for Barack Obama as the Democratic candidate for President of the United States!

Labels: election

GOING THERE

I have avoided looking at 2012 and the re-election of Barack Obama because I will get so caught up in it that the less time I am obsessed the better.

Nevertheless, since Steve Benen goes there so well, so will I. Just for a peak.

Looking at the Landscape With a Demographic Lens

I don't want to lean on this too much but the changes that are going on around me are dramatic.

I can see them!

I can read about them.

If I were a member of the GOP, I would be thinking long and hard about that party's present direction and if I want to go with that flow or not. Already, some are looking and acting. Scott Brown in MA comes to mind. Others? Even some of the old guys. Lugar.

Some of the freshmen? Probably not. Many got swept in with the bagger tide and will get swept out again.

I remember the first time that I heard the word "demographic". It was all the rage in the 70s and then became a staple in every market research project anyone, anywhere took into account.

This was the beginning of niche marketing. It was the realization that one commercial would not hit everyone nor should it.

I was in the MR business for awhile and we were quite interested in getting the right consumers to talk to.

After awhile, I got tired of it.

Labels: election, polls

AFTERMATH

OK. That's over.

The Prez did his mea culpae, the press had its chance to beat on him a little, the pundits have had a field day saying mostly nothing and now we can get on with it.

None of this is a surprise.

The young stayed home and the old farts went all out.

I got an email from Jim Dean of head of Democracy for America, a progressive PAC/GOTV organization, that said "You and DFA members nationwide did incredible work trying to save Democrats from themselves."

We just didn't really succeed.

The whiners and special interest people (including "the gays" sat on their hands.

I suppose that they "taught Obama a lesson" but it may be an expensive one. They will have to wait two years through the agony of deadlock and the right wing whack jobs until they can go all out and re-elect the Dem in 2012 and retake The Congress.

Masochistic.

We did great here in CA. Whitman went bust. So did her other compatriots who self funded. I read that only 11% of the self funded campaigns work. A quarter of a billion dollars in just a few of these this cycle and three out of four lost.

It is funny. Carly Fiorina has refused to concede to Boxer with 52 vs 43 %. She said it was still too close. Jeez.

Democrats won across the state although our local candidate for representative got beaten. Too bad. I hope he tries again in four years.

The propositions went pretty much as I voted. We will now have a majority required vs 2/3 to approve the budget in the legislature. No marijuana. But as I said you can get it at the local medical pot store. As easy as finding a doc to write you script. Not hard.

So it is over for awhile.

Like I said. Let's get on with it.

Labels: Administration Obama, Democrats, election

ENNUI

Here it is, middle of election night and I am sort of spaced out.

No surprises although I really thought that Kentucky might not be nuts enough to elect the Paul boy.

But it is a wizzy year.

Nate silver says 35 seat majority for "them" to the House and we hold onto the Senate.

More hung decisions on critical matters.

Some say this is a good thing for Obama. He will have a shot at making the system work. I know. He had all majorities, right?

NO. He had a Party in charge who felt as though they could all steer the boat and so he had a goat fuck with them thinking they were all it and they were not.

The Congress particularly.

So I look for him to be a deal maker betwixt the Senate and the House. Bill Clinton turned this into an art. Wedges. Triangulation.

With the bit of radicalization of the GOP maybe he can instill some splits.

Certainly on immigration. Perhaps on the global warming stuff. Maybe even some work on the arms control treaty.

A lot of foreign affairs. Not a lot on the domestic front.

The economic cycle favors Obama. So does the eventual success of the GM and other bailouts. Money back.

Also, if the GOoPers continue their obstruction when they have some say and some power then I think that they are really stepping on their own crank.

With that said, I am going to the hot tub and will weigh in on the results tomorrow. The scene is too vast and too particular to regions and localities to make any sense of it tonight. Talking heads notwithstanding.

Labels: Democrats, election, elections, Republicans

STUNNING

I remember so I have already voted.

Labels: Democrats, election

YOU CAN'T SERVE TWO MASTERS OR RIDE TWO HORSES OR BE A TURNCOAT AND EXPECT TO WIN EITHER SIDE

I predicted this.

Dem Blue Dogs obstructionists set to bear brunt of losses

If it has to happen it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. We didn't have their vote half the time anyway and they were always in the way.

Labels: Democrats, election, polls

CANDIDATES

I said that I voted party line but there are a number of non-partisan positions so let's go down the line. Here is who I am voting for and why.

Governor: Jerry Brown. Committed, experienced, long open public life of major accomplishments. Scandal free. Integrity. Democrat. And not Meg Whitman.

Lieutenant Governor: Gavin Newsome. Mayor of San Francisco, willing to take political risks and stay with the cause, guts. Determination. Leader in gay marriage activity. Democrat.

Senator: Barbara Boxer. Hey. Barbara Boxer. Period. I would vote for her for almost any office. Her opponent? Carly Fiorina. A proven record of incompetence and self indulgence at HP. They fired her. We will not hire her.

United States Representative: Steve Pougnet. Palm Springs Mayor. Gay Has a husband. Two kids. A good guy. Looking to beat Mary Bono Mack who doesn't even live here anymore as she married a Rep from FL. They are DC establishment. She is a sorry spectacle even though she does keep her eye on the constituency as far as gay and aged issues are concerned. She voted against the AFA and all the rest of Obama's legislation. She is a party hack.

State Treasurer: Bill Lockyer. Incumbent. A good guy. Democrat. Has a lot of years in elective office.

Secretary of State: Debra Bowen. Incumbent. Does a good job. Keep her. Democrat.

Controller: John Chang. Incumbent. Good job. Keep him. He stood up to Arnold, toe to toe and into court on withholding pay for employees of the State. Chang won. Democrat. Keep him.

Incidentally, I would be the first one to dump one of the Demos if they fucked up.

Attorney General: Kamala Harris. DA of San Francisco. Good record. Democrat. Would be replacing Jerry Brown. Democrat.

Insurance Commissioner: Dave Jones. Democrat. Strictly party line vote. I only know what he says in his statements. This is a very tough job. We have not had good Commissioners over time. Good luck Dave.

District Member State Board of Equalization (CA Income Tax): Mary Christian Heising. Democrat. A sinecure. I don't really care. There isn't a lot that they do. Run the operation.

State Representative: V. Manuel Perez. Incumbent. Democrats finally took this seat for the first time with Perez. Last time. He has done well. Latino. Great. Democrat. Better. The Repubs put up a Latino too. Trendy. Handwriting on the wall. All these straight white folks will soon be underrepped.

Judges: We get to vote NO on all judges. A good thing. No NO's for me.

State Superintendent of Schools: Larry Aceves. A retired School Super. Is a fresh voice. The other guy is a teacher. Boring summary. This is non-partisan.

Local School Board: I am voting for two incumbents and one new guy. We vote for three. The one incumbent is an ex-police right winger. Out.

County Auditor; Ivan Chand. The other guy hardly tried on the campaign. No web site. Non partisan.

Labels: California, election, elections

SHOWING INITIATIVE

I am about to vote.

I waited until I had digested the referendum items.

It took awhile.

I know that a lot of people who read this don't live in California but I do.

The referendum business is the hardest to digest for a transplant like me.

Totally alien.

Some items are placed by the State, others by petition.

They have to pass muster with the Attorney General or someone to get on the ballot. Secretary of State? They have to be "legal". Constitutional.

But, in a way, this year, we are going to vote on something that no one would have predicted.

The legalization of marijuana.

See? It is an alien process.

Here are the initiatives and how I am going to vote for them.

Actually, they are called "Propositions".

I don't quite understand the numbering. I think that they fill in the available numbers from lapsed initiatives. Those that pass are forever, for example, Proposition 8.

As you can see below this post, they take on a life of their own.

In general, I vote NO on all propositions. I do not like the process and very often it is a means for some special interests to slip one over on the public. But there are exceptions. And I will make some this election.

So here we go.

Proposition 19 legalizes Marijuana--YES. We already know that the Feds will fight this and continue to treat the dread weed as an illegal substance, but there is a bit of the rebel in this State and I expect this might pass.

I, for one, will be voting yes on this Proposition. I believe that the drug is no more dangerous than alcohol and that regulated it will be a far more "reasonable" issue. It will become a matter of tax evasion rather than a criminal act.

I personally am out of the marijuana business. I would not use it. But I think that others should have the freedom to. And, I do not consider it a gateway drug.

Proposition 20 extends redistricting plan of Prop 11.--YES. I like the prop we passed before and believe it should be extended.

Proposition 21 creates a vehicle surcharge to fund parks--NO. This adds 18.00 to the cost of owning a vehicle which isn't a lot but this is a great example of the rampant special funding gadgets slipped in as initiatives. It is complicated. It is in perpetuity even though the problem of parks is not. No and don't keep putting these junk props on the ballot.

Proposition 22 prohibits State from "raiding" certain funds--NO. Another gadget. Short term "solution" to a short term problem. Times are tough so times are tough. Restrain yourselves from "simple" actions that you will regret.

Proposition 23 suspends Air Pollution controls--NO HELL NO. This is one they hope to slip in. They are the petroleum industry. Every cycle there is one of these. Either the power or insurance or petroleum interests.

Proposition 24 repeals recent legislation that allows business to lower tax liability--NO for now. This is part of a deal they passed to get the Republicans to approve the budget. It was arm twisting in extremis. Now they want to take it back. It was ugly but legal. I might vote YES in the actual voting but I don't think so. I don't like undoing legislation. Especially budgetary. Why have a legislature? Vote the bastards out but don't Monday morning quarterback.

Proposition 25 allows the legislature Majority to pass the budget with a majority--Yes. My dear gods YES, YES, YES. They need 2/3 now and that leads to the abomination we have as a budget review. It kills this State every year.

Proposition 26 puts State fees to two thirds vote--NO. Christalmighty NO NO NO NO. This is just the issue we are undoing in Prop 25. See? How ungainly this all is?

Proposition 27 undoes redistricting provisions voted in previous election and extended in this one with Prop 20.--No. Enough already. We decided this once and it was a good decision.

So that is it.

I will let you know about the candidates when I vote but you already know that I am a straight party line man so, why bother now?

Labels: election

ALL THE MONEY MONEY CAN BUY

Meg Whitman is trying to buy the California Governorship.

And she still is on a par with Gerry Brown in the polls.

A hundred and four million dollars. I thought that I would write it all out.

Of her own money!

And it is hardly September or Labor Day.

Whitman's Money Blankets Electorate

This is an amazing thing.

I love being present as history is made. The plutocrats are taking over on the backs of the proletariat. I know. I wrote that the other day. But look. That is just what is happening.

Don't the dumb bastards get it?

OK

I will settle down now.

Labels: California, election

MARY AT THE EDGE

For as long as we remember, the Bonos have had a lock on the local Congressional seat.

First Sonny, who reigned until he did a face plant into a tree while skiing, then his trophy wife Mary took over. A former aerobics trainer, she was notably unqualified for the job but, for many years, the GOoPers had a lock on the district. The old and rich and nutty.

Then came "the gays" and other notable liberals. For several elections, we had people run who had the stuff but neither the money or the presence to topple Mary from her perch.

Meantime, Mary went from being a puppet of the right wing House to, actually, being a creditable rep of her District. She brought home federal money, her most important job, and she voted contrary to the republican line when it came to gay issues and some other liberal causes.

I have called her office many times and was treated with respect and attention even when they and I knew that I was just blowing in the wind.

This time, she has a formidable challenger with some real political ability and clout.

Bono has been declared by her Party as an endangered seat.

Funny. They call these people "Patriots" to designate their potential as losers.

This LATimes article nicely sizes the situation up.

California's few congressional battlegrounds heating up

She has even had demonstrators at her office and they are not the tea bags. These are the "liberal elite". That means working class Democrats.

We like her opposition. Steve Pougnet. He is a good guy. Bland. A former Mayor. That is how Sonny started.

He is also gay, married and has two kids. That puts a different spin on the ball.

He does seem closer to the goal than any other candidate we have seen before.

Good luck.

He is the one on our right.

Labels: Democrats, election

THIS SHOULD BE FUN

The California general kicked off with Fiorina making a fool of herself on live teevee.

You know that I am an anti-Fiorina person from way back. Way, way before she thought she should run for public office. When she was running HP, into the ground.

If she was a guy I would call her a dick and an asshole and let it go at that but she is a woman and therefor immune from my ruder remarks.

Can a woman be a dick?

Beware of Live Microphones

She is an interesting character. She worked for McCain and said some stuff for attribution that was way off the party line. Something about how neither McCain or Obama would be as good a President as an experienced CEO.

She was muted right after that.

She has a considerable ego which, of course, they all do but seems to lack the kind of staffing that keeps her out of trouble.

No experienced business executive or politician would be so naive to assume that a microphone was anything but live, live, live. At the mercy of the techies who are bound not to like any of her ilk.

Labels: California, election

EARLY VOTER

I voted in the California Primary this morning.

4:00 AM

There weren't any flags or balloons.

Just me and a pen and the absentee ballot. And the cheat sheet based on the booklet we got a few weeks ago.

It is depressing. I liked the whir of the machines and the mumble of the crowd. I enjoyed getting my "I voted" sticker.

Alas, that is all over now. They have so many people voting absentee that they have combined precincts and made it more annoying.

So here I was. At home. No whir, no mumble.

Here is what I did.

I voted NO on all the propositions. I usually do this as a default to protest propositions but this time I voted out of conviction too. You have to be careful of the names. They sound good.

There is Prop 13 which would place limits on tax assessment of retrofitting of buildings for earthquakes until the building is sold. NO. It improves the value of the building. Pay now.

Proposition 14 is basically an open primary law. No parties. Anyone can vote for anyone. NO. Actually, this does not create open primaries. It only requires that the name of the party would not be on the ballot. I don't want GOoPers messing with my party. No, goddam it no!

Prop 15, the California Fair Elections Act which would repeal bans on public funding of political campaigns. It would allow the Secretary of State to make grants to individuals who signed off on raising any money. The Con for this is that it is a trick. It raises taxes with no accountability for the expense. It also allows politicians to raise money from special interest groups. NO. Hell, NO.

Proposition 16 imposes a two thirds voter approval for the establishment of local public electricity providers. NO. This is sponsored by the power companies and make it almost impossible for municipalities to build their own power facilities as the City of Los Angeles does. The private companies have spent millions on this campaign. NO. Fuck NO.

Proposition 17 allows auto insurance companies to base their prices in part on a drivers history of insurance coverage. No. This is sponsored by a big insurance company so they can raise insurance premiums as much as a thousand dollars on new customers after an initial switch over from another company discount. NO. I am a member/customer of AAA.

The candidates are the candidates. I voted for Brown as Democratic candidate for Governor, Gavin Newsome as Lt. Governor and Boxer for Senator. I want to see Boxer clean Fiorina's clock! If she is the Rep-nom.

I voted for the Hispanic, the female and the new face (sometimes all in one candidate) for any office I didn't know about. I skipped two because I had no idea at all.

I am all for the amateur Latino women to take over the State.

There were a lot of unopposed candidates. I voted for them anyway.

That is it. The ballot is in the mail with the usual worry that I did something that would invalidate it. There is a hole in the envelope and, somehow, I think that maybe there is something I am supposed to do about that but I can't find anything about it so I didn't do anything but look through it. Worries like that.

The primary date is June 8th so I have plenty of time to await results.

Labels: election

YOU CAN TAKE BOY OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA BUT YOU CAN'T TAKE PENNSYLVANIA OUT OF THE BOY

I am still interested in politics there. My birth state.

I was once a campaign treasurer handling lots of anonymous money for a particular candidate. I worried for years that they would come and get me, the patsy in the deal.

Last election cycle, purely by "chance", I ended up making all my calls for Obama to the Keystone State. So they can't take me out of there either.

Interesting to see that the old fox Arlen Specter is about to get his ass kicked by Sestak.

Obama supported Specter because the fox vacated the GOP and voted with the Demos a few times.

When Sestak wins the primary on Tuesday, maybe, it will take a heartbeat to seal the small wound and have Obama hugging the nominee. No one will look back. Except, maybe, ol' Arlen. He may have finally cheated on his last game of cards.

I am an old admirer of the slithery Arlen who was once a Democrat, then defected to the GOP, now back again. He is a horrible hack but interesting to watch.

I started watching when I lived "in" Philadelphia for a few years in the late fifties.

Labels: Administration Obama, election, Pennsylvania

MONEY

I stand alone among the "progressives" on the Supreme Court decision regarding corporate contributions.

I hate these laws.

I do not even think that they serve in a partisan way.

Time has proven that one party benefits as much as the other from this union and corporate money.

I think that this is one more example of how two people, McCain and Feingold, managed to throttle the electoral process with regulation that basically makes no sense at all.

Both guys are "aginners". They like to throw their weight around. And they did.

What a mess.

I am with this guy.

Stampede Toward Democracy

And yes. Obama is wrong and just posturing. That is how it is. Gotta say it.

Labels: Administration Obama, election