esrosedotblog

I am leery of polls.

But Nate Silver is the gold standard bearer and a dependable source of important conclusions as well as data.

Outfits like Gallup gather information but Silver takes it many steps further to analyze and absorb.

Here, Silver sums up for us after the convention period.

Why a Meaningful Shift in the Trump-Clinton Race May Be at Hand

Silver always sees both sides. Helps us muffle joy and sorrow with perspective.

Things are looking good for Democrats right now. Silver thinks they have a solid foothold for the general.

Labels: polls

I have put Nate Silver's blog on my daily mix.

Five Thiry Eight

538 is the number of electoral votes up for grabs.

What tipped me over was the entry of Mark Rubio into the GOP race.

I am not a fan of any particular candidate this year although, for now, it has to be Hillary Clinton.

Will any Democrat have the balls to buck the Clintons? I doubt it.

They might put a few stalking horses out there to feel the heat of some electoral mojo but for the most part I think she has it if she wants it. And, a big one, if she doesn't fuck up.

Remember the Clintons have a lingering death wish. All we need is for Bill to get his fingers caught in some finger pie somewhere. Or who knows?

It is all fun anyway as I am not all that invested. For now.

Anyway, later on, Silver will have the best stats and commentary on the running(s). Indispensable for even a casual fan of the process.

Give him a try.

He is also a certified out of the closet homo so there is a brotherhood component to my fandom. A geek fairy.

Labels: election, polls

CONFLUENCE

I don't much like conflict.

Although I am willing to indulge in it. Particularly partisan political conflict.

Sometimes I worry that our country is flying apart. In pieces.

This defies my understanding of things. I exist in a personal world that seems a lot more peaceful. I am agreeable. So are the people around me.

Even the partisan politicals that I interact with are nice about it.

It is comforting to read this as it speaks to the larger universe.

90 Percent of Americans Agree on God, Country and Sex Education.

Take a look at the list of areas where people come together more than 90%.

Believe in God. Sure, if this means that they have spiritual lives that need not be messed up with religious theories.

Are very patriotic. That's me. I think most people too. Some a bit overzealous, nevertheless.

Consider preventing terrorism a very important foreign policy goal. I am down with that.

Admire those who get rich by working hard. Yes. I worked hard and within my frame of reference, I got rich. Rich enough.

Think society should ensure everyone has equal opportunity to succeed. Yes. I am not sure that it does, but I wish that it did.

Think it’s important to get more than a high school education. I am glad they don't stipulate. Auto-college is a bit underfire right now. I think that everyone should move on to vocational or academic education of some kind.

Favor teaching sex education in public schools. Of course. And that means absent of bullshit concepts such as abstinence and the like. I mean, abstinence is OK but it should be a choice. Should also, obviously, include positive messages about the variety of sexual experience.

Find birth control morally acceptable. I would say necessary but this is more a political decision I guess. It should go with the sex education thing.

Believe cloning humans would be morally wrong. Yes. Period. No question. I don't know about the "morally" part but it is and would be surely bad for business. Messing with Darwin.

Believe it’s wrong for married people to have affairs. Yes. If by "affairs" you mean the establishment of relationships similar to mistresses and the like to the exclusion of the partner to whom one made the vows. Even for "the gays" who have always considered themselves an exception.

Are interested in keeping up with national affairs. I hope so.

Believe it’s their duty to always vote. Now. This is where the study comes up short. We know by actual fact and measure that while people may believe this, they do not practice it.

And this may be true for a lot of the other items as well. See "affairs" for example. Belief does not always produce consistent action so while we might be comforted by the confluence of beliefs, we should probably be disturbed by people's tendency to lie about all these "good" things.

I remain a skeptic about others but can find myself practically perfect!

Labels: polls

THE MAYBE BUMP

Kos thinks that there is already the makings of a third debate bump which, actually, started with the second bump. A two and three bump.

Hints of a Post Third Debate Obama Bump

It is fun to read if, like me, you are what Sam Wang calls "a poll sniffer".

Incidentally, Sam Wang at Princeton, who writes beautifully about the polls, still has Obama at 292 electoral votes and Sam Wang was the only prognosticator that had the 2008 results exactly. Not to dis Nate Silver at the NYT who still shows similar Obama results. I am getting Nate's new book.

I read all the polls every day, often twice a day. The outlier Gallup which has had Romney up as high as 7 points has begun to swing toward Obama and their job approval rating has gone to the highest 53% in a long time.

Of course, if this is true and it seems to be, then there is little time for this bump to subside, if it would, before the vote. Right now, people are voting.

Labels: polls, Re-election of Barack Obama

Sam Wang again.

A very reliable analyst.

He thinks that right now there is a good chance of the Demos getting a 16 seat majority in the House.

I don't know but he has a great record of accurate predictions. He also says Barack rules.

GOP HOUSE AT RISK?

Labels: polls

Just look at this. Astounding.

Can it be?

You know, the Pew has a great record and polls all the time. They also poll deeply.

Really Bad News From Pew for Mitt

I can't really elaborate on this. It is what it is.

Devastating.

But, the usual caveats do apply.

No partying. Although a smirk and a bit of a smile is OK. Go have a coke or something.

Labels: polls

I look at the polls a lot because it mostly makes me feel good. And better as time goes on toward November 6. Actually until a few weeks when many of us will start voting on mail ins.

But the really really feel good place is on Intrade, the place where people treat the election as a stock and put their money where their mouths are. Take a look at this.

Obama Killing it on Intrade

The headline says it all. It has been inching and inching. I saw it go up on Cairo. I am seeing it happen on 47%.

Sure, a lot can happen to make it go the other way but there are fewer and fewer days for that to happen.

And you have to admit that Romney is buzzkilling his own chances. It hardly matters what the Obamas do except to hold steady and GOTV.

Outdated but still.

It is funny that in this example, Hillary Clinton is on her high cycle. You know how that turned out. So beware of riding it on the up.

Labels: elections, polls

GALLUPING AHEAD

I read the Gallup polls every day. Not just the Obama ones but the general interview results.

Here is one of the most interesting trends of late.

Gallup's Democratic ID advantage moves to six points

I am a bit poll crazy but I regard Gallup as the gold standard in the USA (Field in California). I have watched their site for years and years.

I have the feeling that they are totally unbiased and, if anything, conservative about their judgements and interpretations.

I think that they also tend, because of their extremely large sample, to have a low margin of error.

I am sometimes disappointed with their results. It hurts particularly hard when that happens because it is Gallup.

This result is quite good. It is discussed very sanely in the posting.

In short, the momentum is there for Democrats in a very tough time to be governing. They could be thought to be surging.

Team Blue is in pretty good shape.

Of course it is too early to know what impact this will have on 2012 but one thing is sure. The Republicans have blown their advantage of 2010 and are falling behind. They can not govern. They are political. No there there.

Labels: polls

GOING THERE

I have avoided looking at 2012 and the re-election of Barack Obama because I will get so caught up in it that the less time I am obsessed the better.

Nevertheless, since Steve Benen goes there so well, so will I. Just for a peak.

Looking at the Landscape With a Demographic Lens

I don't want to lean on this too much but the changes that are going on around me are dramatic.

I can see them!

I can read about them.

If I were a member of the GOP, I would be thinking long and hard about that party's present direction and if I want to go with that flow or not. Already, some are looking and acting. Scott Brown in MA comes to mind. Others? Even some of the old guys. Lugar.

Some of the freshmen? Probably not. Many got swept in with the bagger tide and will get swept out again.

I remember the first time that I heard the word "demographic". It was all the rage in the 70s and then became a staple in every market research project anyone, anywhere took into account.

This was the beginning of niche marketing. It was the realization that one commercial would not hit everyone nor should it.

I was in the MR business for awhile and we were quite interested in getting the right consumers to talk to.

After awhile, I got tired of it.

Labels: election, polls

SLIPPING

Nate Silver has some comments on the new CNN poll results.

Poll Shows More Americans Have Unfavorable Views of Tea Party

The party is certainly not over but the first guests have left and the hangers-on are about to decide that, except for the heavy drinkers, there isn't really much left at the bar. Outrage, accusation, extreme positions, culture warriorism and the like are poor substitutes for responsible governance.

A lot of voters got high on the first phases of the party but soon found the heavy hitters too much to handle.

Labels: polls, republican whack jobs

YOU CAN'T SERVE TWO MASTERS OR RIDE TWO HORSES OR BE A TURNCOAT AND EXPECT TO WIN EITHER SIDE

I predicted this.

Dem Blue Dogs obstructionists set to bear brunt of losses

If it has to happen it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. We didn't have their vote half the time anyway and they were always in the way.

Labels: Democrats, election, polls

QUIET OPTIMISM

I know. It is all over. The GOoPers are going to sweep Congress. The Demos are in deep shit.

Obama's ratings are so low that.................

Wait a minute.

The scale began tipping last week. I read all this stuff and more and more things are looking like this.

Abandon All Hope? Not Quite Yet.

Of course, I have been following all of this closely. I know about peaking too early. The Repubs may just have been doing that.

The races all across the country have been tightening up. There is a lot less air between any front runner of any party than there was, were. That can only be good for the party that was behind.

There is also the GOTV. Get Out The Vote.

There is an enormous Democrat effort being made in the Howard Dean fifty state strategy approach. That coupled with the Obama machine. I get the mail day after day.

I send money.

Now. What if it does turn around. Good. I expect the same shit we have had from the Republicans and a lot of conflict.

What if it doesn't? What if it turns out the Ol' Orange John Boehner runs the House?

Then I expect the same shit we had from the Republicans and a lot of conflict.

The same.

Don't forget. Obama is a canny scrapper. Don't forget he he is President and has the veto.

With all the talk about what they are going to do, the fact is that the GOP can't run Congress to suit its own agenda. They have to have the override ability of a Prexy veto. And so on.

I have voted already. So have an awful lot of people and the Demo registered ballots currently outweigh the GOP. The enthusiasm gap on their side has dwindled and ours is on the rise.

Obama had 35,000 people in a frenzy in LA yesterday.

He is fired up and ready to go and so are they.

Labels: Democrats, polls, Republicans

PULLING AWAY

Apparently by spending millions of her own dollars, or their own dollars, to buy the election, both Whitman and Fiorina have only convinced the California citizenry of their incompetence to govern.

Brown leads Whitman 49%-44% in poll

Or maybe it is something else entirely. Like that phony grin of Whitman's. A grimace really.

Or Carly's total self regard and lack of humility.

I was surprised by this result because, as I have written, I don't think Jerry Brown has been trying very hard. H is an old California pol. He knows the lay of the land a lot better than I do.

Boxer, on the other hand, has attacked Fiorina with the yacht and jets ad which paints Carly as an entitled princess which, of course, she is.

In actual fact, Fiorina is improving Boxer's position every time she opens her mouth.

Also interesting here is that the two GOoPer campaigns have diverged. Different positions on various issues.

It is said that the women do not like each other at all.

Well, neither is likable. It figures.

As I like to remind myself, there is a long period of time between now and November 2d. Anything could happen.

Fiorina could get just a smidgeon of humility and Whitman might run out of money.

Labels: California, politics, polls

THE FAT LADY IS STILL SINGING

There is a lot of doomsday shit in the air about the Demo's chances in November. But the fact is that, if you dig into the polls, there is a lot to be encouraged about.

An Ambiguous Landscape

Despite the general anti-incumbency mood, which would hit the majority Demos worse, in specific, there is a lot of split.

People still blame the GOP and bush for the economy. They approve more than disapprove the way that Obama is handling the economy. And so on.

People way more believe that the GOP will take them back to bush policies and that is not good for the GOP. The Demos are hammering on this one and it is working.

If you are in the blues over this, read this link.

Sorry Aretha, I couldn't resist. You came up fifth in the Google image of fat lady singing. It is not my fault. And, you are one who sings the blues. A natural for this item.

Labels: Democrats, music, politics, polls

NEWS IQ?

Take this news IQ. It seems pretty fucking simple. But the results indicate that this is not so.

I am only putting this up since I got 100%.

If I hadn't I would just blow it off as inconsequential.

Pew News IQ

Here is how the "others" did.

Labels: life, polls

PROMISES, PROMISES

If you are a data-holic like me, you will love this:

The Obameter

This site is keeping track of about 500 promises that Obama made during the campaign.

So far, he has delivered on five, compromised on one and stalled on one.

Not too shabby for a short work week.

At this rate, he will have delivered on all of them in 100 days.

I doubt the GOoPers will allow him to hit that pace.

I quibble with the compromise item but I will let it up to you to decide.

Click on any of the categories for details.

Very nice graphic.

Labels: Administration Obama, politics, polls

POLLING CONT'D

I have not quit looking at polls every day. There are some still running. There are a lot of contests brewing already for the Congress and Senate as well as State contests.

The Rasmussen continues to measure Obama's popularity.

Daily Presidential Approval Index

On Thursday, for the fourth straight day, Barack Obama’s ratings as President-elect have moved to a new high-water mark. One month after his election victory, 42% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way he is handling the role of President-elect while just 14% Strongly Disapprove. Those figures give Obama a +28 rating in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Approval Index

It works with me. I look at it every day.

Labels: Administration Obama, polls

SILVER LINING

This is an appreciation of Nate Silver. My FiveThirtyEight.com man. He and I have kept a daily liaison for all of this year. Sometimes two and three times a day.

Not only is he a terrific numbers guy, he explains. And comments. And has a point of view. And he predicted Obama before anyone else did. Rather accurately too.

Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama

And another breakthrough. How long has it been since you saw the word 'prescient" in a headline?

What? 538 is the number of electors! From the beginning, Nate has reminded us that is what counts. Not the pop numbers or an accumulated number. Those are interesting but not the prize.

Labels: election, polls

POLLESS

Today is the first day in a long while that there are no polling results to look at in the AM. Or PM.

Something has dropped out of my life!

No opinion, op ed or other. No run to the "Politics" ticker of AP.

Quiet. Calm reflection.

Something has happened. Something is done.

A turning point.

I am watching to see our man pivot to governing.

I bet it will be quick. Cabinet. Other positions.

I am waiting.

In the meantime, I have time. More time to read. Less rush to get to the day's movie.

I have some non-ficiton lined up. Hitler's Empire:How the Nazis Ruled Europe by Mark Mazower. Hallelujah Junction, an autobiography by John Adams, the composer. September Songs, a book about older people. I forget why we got it but liked the reviews.

This kind of reading has always taken some more time and reflection than fiction for me. So I can use the lack of distraction.

And the blog.

What will I be writing about in the blog? We shall see.

There will certainly be some politics. I imagine that the wing nuts and the nay sayers will still be around.

But maybe I can just relax a little into having some more items about nature and living and hanging around. A little humor wouldn't hurt either. We have been way to serious.

The blog has never been meant to be political. It is about me. And when I am being political, the blog is the same. So as times and my mood change so will the "rants and ruminations".

Labels: blog, blogging, election, polls

FIRST TIME

Gallup takes two likely voter (LV) models. One based on the 2004 turnout and the other is based on this year's best estimate.

Up to now there have been serious differences between the two as Obama polls a few points ahead of McCain in the 2004 model and more, usually 7-10 ahead in the new one.

Today, for the first time, they track the same and at the highest level ever in the 2004 model. Way higher.

Gallup Daily:

Barack Obama leads John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday by a 52% to 42% margin in both of Gallup’s likely voter models.

Obama leads by a similar 52% to 41% margin among all registered voters.

Yes. That's ten points. 10.

Labels: Barack Obama, polls