esrosedotblog

The old norm was snark from the Europeans towards Americans.

They have looked down on us for some time. This was particularly so while our economic situation was in sad shape.

Now the shoe is on the other foot.

European Economy Tries to Find Its Way

I don't much get into economics. Particularly the global kind. But I do get into how nations treat each other and am interested in national attitudes and stereotypes.

The French are old players in the drama of "better than" and this is apparent even when a waiter finds out you are an American. Your treatment changes immediately. And even if you speak flawless French, I hear, you are going to get the snot.

I used to train internationally. The French were always a problem with the Germans right after. Nothing American could be worth spending three days on learning.

I learned how to set them all on their superior asses quite quickly. The key is to never shrink from a jibe or jeer or veiled attack under an innocent sounding question.

So, it is still in me. Nice to see the tide turn some.

Of course, I do not revel in others' misery. Real people are involved here.

But economies go up and economies go down and the proud are as likely to be victimized by it as anyone else.

It is nice though to see them squirm; Angela Merkel and whoever the current French guy is particularly.

Labels: economy, europe

I am proud of my adopted State. In a lot of ways it is similar to my Massachusetts where I lived for so many years. 32.

It is left leaning and, what is more, it works.

There are a lot of jokes about us being where the "fruits and nuts" come from. Well, to some extent. But it is a wonderful kind of nuttiness that makes us take risks and see the world as a place you can arrange for better living for everyone.

I will leave the "fruits" part for another time.

Paul Krugman writes about this today.

Left Coast Rising

The point is that our policies of raising taxes to even out the economy have largely worked. There is more employment, there are expanded social services and, what is more, there is a budget surplus.

Good news for the lefties, bad for the sour grapes, me first right wing who still say it is all a give-away. Wait. Is that one of the conservatives I see there scooping up his benefits of living here?

I live in the middle of the angry right belt. Riverside County and Palm Springs are the home of the old and mean. Less and less so, gratefully. They are thawing out. They have learned that when the tide rises so do all the boats. And, in the end, they are all reaping the benefits of a strong retirement income. At least part from a (gasp) government program, Social Security. The irony.

Labels: California, economy

Every so often the liberal bleeding hearts have some measurable success.

Those without health insurance falls 3.7% to 13.4% says Gallup, down more for blacks and Hispanics

Plummets would be a better word. Look at the chart.

The thing about lefty positions is that they are often led by the heart and so the results are qualitative, not necessarily quantitative.

But here we are. We have both. In a relatively short time.

Maybe they will quit calling it "Obamacare" pretty soon but now that it has stuck and it is a success, then so be it. Once again, hoist by their own petard, rhetorically speaking.

By "them" I mean the Fox News crowd and the pundits who like to lead from their cold little non-bleeding hearts.

While we are at it, let's cite this one too.

Standard of Living Index Climbs Six Year High

Things are looking good for the economy. Even the haters are doing better than ever. But get them to admit it? Nope.

Labels: economy, liberals, wingnuts

CHICKEN LITTLE TAKES A BREAK

With all the sweat about the deficit it seems that people have not noticed that the "deficit crisis" is on its way of solving itself!

Raw Data, the Deficit is Shriiiiiinking

What about all the prognosticators? Wrong as usual.

The doomsday people? Quiet. The election is over after all.

This morning, I noticed that FoxNews has turned its attention to the threat of North Korea. (They are about to attack LA).

I am not an economist, but I have lived long enough to understand that a)The country is not like a business or a family. Borrowing is an important positive to manage the economy.

In addition, b), most of the debt is not held by foreign countries, notably China. It is held by Americans. File that one away too.

We owe it to ourselves in more ways than one.

The air is filled with nonsense which is often taken way too seriously. Adam Smith's "invisible hand" has not been cut off. It is moving and pushing and holding and correcting.

Labels: economy

OUR STATE GOES BOOM

The Hellhole That is California

And in only half his term. Jerry.

He is cookin' and ready to move further with a lock on the legislature.

This is what happens when your GOP goes legless. They are almost non-existent at the State level and soon will lose some more congressional seats too.

This is the amusement park, The Pike. Title is California amusement park building boom.

I just liked the picture.

The Pike was and is in Long Beach where we have spent some time. Now, it is a commercial development. Booming. But no amusement park. An aquarium and a huge conference center fills the space.

Labels: California, economy, fun

SOME PERSPECTIVE

Labels: economy

THIS IS FUNNY

Paul Krugman Explains Why He Didn't Really Want the Treasury Job Anyway

Actually, more than amusing. Astonishing.

The funny thing is that no one here seems to realize why it is astonishing.

That is the idea the idea that Krugman would even be considered for the job.

The thing about this economic wunderkind is that he he has an astonishingly large and fragile ego.

He pissed the Obamas off long, long ago with his strident criticism.

A lot of lefties dote on Krugman's words and opinions. Not me.

I think he always has another agenda that has more with Paul Krugman's prominence than any other thing.

I also think that he is frequently wrong in his opinions.

Sure, there is that Nobel on his fireplace mantle but as a human being he lacks a certain humility. Or is it that he is just a shitty politician?

This guy kinds of kicks K's ass while he sits on the same stage. And yes, it is boring as shit.

Labels: economy

WHY GREECE?

Just this morning I tried to answer to this question. But better than my feeble attempt is this piece by Kevin Drum.

A Conversation About Greece

He does a great job of untangling a complicated situation.

I am still not sure why Greece and the Euro and the European Union are so critical to the daily swings of the stock market except in the sense that globalization, particularly of financial affairs, makes world wide waves no matter where the rocks are dropping in the water.

What I thought was an insane response, the "referendum", now seems to be another ploy to get the Union to do more or take more responsibility.

Someone will have to blink.

Or, the opposition within Greece will topple the current regime (I am trying to avoid spelling Papandreou). Many in the parliament are in favor of signing the agreement as it now stands. Up to yesterday his cabinet was willing to sign but he got them onto the referendum wagon.

Anyway the markets are bat-shit insane anyway. So what's a little Greece in the fire?

Labels: economy

GREASE

The market is totally fucked up today. Greece again.

It never occurred to me that my nestegg would be subjected to wild swings caused by a country on the other side of the Mediterranean.

But, there is linkage. Greece is part of the EU and the EU is not very responsive to the problems there and, as a result, financial markets are roiled when Greece does one more slippery thing and we all are precarious.

Fear is running things these days. And not only that but it can't be easy trekking through protestors when you go to work at the Exchange. A very interesting development. It feels a little like the 60s.

There isn't a lot to be done. The market is down today even though the US indicators were very good. And also last week. Much lower than expected signups for unemployment and other positive signs.

Christ, even Chrysler increased sales by 27%.

That stuff doesn't mean much anymore or, at least, right now. Europe. Instability. Crashes.

Labels: economy

BOOM OR BUST

As I read about Irene's threat to the economy last week, I thought that they were missing something.

Today, someone asks the same question that I did.

Irene: An economic blow or boost?

This has to be a stimulus. A lot of companies are going to spend a lot of money to get fixed. A lot of local and state governments are going to go to work. The Feds are going to spoon out cash.

Despite Ron Paul's no FEMA position (what a dick) there will be a lot of repair and reclamation going on.

Hard to tell maybe but this could help the unemployment situation for awhile. Dunno.

Labels: economy

STIMULUS REDUX

It Looks Like the Stimulus Worked After All

Another republican shot down with his data twisted.

Labels: economy, Republicans

THE SHELL GAME EXPOSED

The continued refusal of the Republican Congressional leadership to see that this is no time for austerity is beginning to be exposed for the fundamental paradox that it is. A fake. A game. Contrived or just wrong headed, it is beginning to be assaulted even by other knowledgable Republicans.

G.O.P. on Defensive as Analysts Question Party’s Fiscal Policy

And they are getting worse. The "debate" between Republican primary candidates was a hug fest to the right wing. Every one said that there should be a balanced budget amendment.

No there should not. There should be a short term stimulus and a long term plan to give the debt a soft landing.

Obama is going on the attack with this. Pelosi says that her candidates for the mega-panel on debt will be pushing jobs and stimulus as a way to increase revenue.

This is the broken leg of the Republican's policy. Their refusal to consider revenue as a resource to cut the debt. Whether increased taxes for the rich, which a huge majority of the people support, or stimulus to increase federal revenue out of higher GDP.

And so on. I think I know which shell the pea is under and so do a lot of other people.

Labels: economy, republican whack jobs

OK. WHY AM I NOT FREAKED OUT?

The markets are in terrible shape.

How come I am not more upset?

Because this has happened maybe four times since I retired. 2001 and 9-11, the big meltdown, the little meltdown two years ago, and, well, it is serious but, let's face it. The guy next door died last week. He isn't worried about it.

More? What goes down must go up. This will bottom when people see bargains and start buying. Also when they come to their senses and realize that S&P is a bullshit outfit who never ever downgraded the banks when they were failing.

Why else? Because my broker's management committee has already sent me a nice, rational summary of the equity markets and the municipal markets that satsify my questions. That is what I am in. They are more circumspect about T-Bills but that is another matter.

More. I have no plans to cash in my paper. If was going to do that today or tomorrow I would be jumping off the patio out back. Three inches. Not a bad fall.

But I am not.

This is all paper loss as it is all paper gain when that happens.

I am diversified, I am optimistic by nature. And I have never really lost anything big up to now and so why now?

Labels: economy

AFTERMATH

I suppose I should say something about the whole debt ceiling thing.

I don't feel bad about it.

In my usual contrarian way, I liked all the messiness of it. This is the American way. We have never handled things in a euro-civilized way.

I saw some criticism from the haughty French dame that took over from the serial seducer at MLF. Piss off.

Of course, I don't like conflict any more than the next person. But as I wrote below, a few days ago, we voted (or did not vote which is part of the problem) the rascals in so we got what we deserved.

It is messy, democracy.

Obama? He gets out with more criticism from the lefties than those on the right. I think he did fine. He got boxed in. They are tough opponents. But a close inspection of the "deal" shows that the left didn't do that bad.

There won't be any more of this until after the general election. There are no cuts to Medicare and Social Security or other entitlements. There is wonderful cover for cuts to the incredibly too large defense budget. Now more of an "offense" budget.

The other thing is that the deal is backloaded. We always taught in negotiation to take your medicine in the long term. So much can happen that you may never actually have to "pay" anything.

I don't care about the winners/losers stuff or the polls. We are a long way off from any meaningful consideration of the Presidential. Until there is a GOP candidate we can't do much of anything. Romney is seen as the strongest against Obama (but not winning) and relatively weak in the GOP field. The rest? Not a worry. Perry is a desirable GOP candidate as he will scare the bejeezus out of the libs and they will turn out again. Ditto Bachman.

So, all in all not a bad deal or process at all.

And the stock market? Kevin Drum thinks it is really all about Europe which is definitely something to worry about. The Greeks. The Italians. And the rest of them for being unwilling to support their weakest.

Soon, if we were inclined, we will get to sneer at the EU.

What the Markets Are Really Worried About.

Labels: economy, Re-election of Barack Obama

THE WISDOM OF THE MARKET

This is funny. Actually, so funny that I probably made as much paper money on bonds as I may have lost on stocks yesterday. I am 50/50.

WHO'S AFRAID OF STANDARD AND POOR?

So look. The move accomplished two things.

It showed Wall Street's opinion of the GOoPers playing around with the debt stuff and, at the same time, it stirred the market to revive its interest in US Government Bonds.

Not bad.

The "invisible hand" moves again.

Labels: economy, market, Republicans

CASH OUT

I am friends with a guy at the gym who owns a few gas stations in town. Mostly Shell.

When the prices went up, we were fascinated with how he justified jumping the price of gas just like that. Bang. Four dollars a gallon. Same day.

Of course, he blamed the supplier and the Middle East and Muammar Gaddafi, the soon to be ex-dictator of Lybia. But I knew better.

They will do fucking anything to put a few more cents on the gallon all the way up the line. Wait for the higher world price to hit this region. No way. Get it now.

The fact that most sweet Libyan oil goes to Europe plays no part in it.

We do not take our arguments seriously. Besides, I have my friend Gene, a retired dentist from Portland, a bona fide liberal, to help me with the discussions, short as they are.

I don't chat at the gym. I stop by their bikes and exchange a few shots over the bow and then proceed with my workout.

I came in the other day and asked how much he was charging now. $4.05, I think.

I told him that I just bought gas for less down the road from the gym. Valerio.

He said that I probably didn't. Did I use a credit card? Yes.

That price I am quoting, he says, is the cash price.

If you buy the gas with a credit card it costs eight cents a gallon more.

No!

Yes.

So I checked it out. He is right. There is one sign there that has both prices. It is not lit and it is at the edge of the property. On the big sign and on the pumps it does say "cash" but I have never seen it. The price that comes up on the pump is the cash price. The eight cents a gallon is a surcharge for the card.

Fuck. I hate to be wrong.

I went in the other morning when I filled my tank and paid cash. It isn't the eighty cents really. I have wasted that much in the last hour one way or another. It is the principal.

And I found out that the guy who is in there is short, handsome and latino. Bingo.

These prices, incidentally, are a lot higher than you back east folks. Be grateful. Of course, your gas station attendants are not in the same class so that is the downside.

See that guy standing at his car? Looking at the prices? He is about to go in and kick the shit out of the Shell gas station owner.

Labels: desert, economy

IT'S A GAS

Yesterday at the supermarket I asked how Linda, the checker and front manager, was doing.

She went into a swoon over the price of gas. Which I had not noticed, myself. But I don't much look at the price of anything. Not blasé, really, just lazy.

I asked her how far she had to drive to work. "A couple of miles".

Oh.

Then today, one of the gym guys who owns a few gas stations, was all about the gasoline prices. He said that his regular was at $4.00 a gallon. Hmm. Last time I filled up it was more like 3 something. Last week. $3.50?

We kidded around about filling up whenever we got the chance. But when I left for home, I stopped at my usual place to fill up. I had over a half a tank. I had caught the panic.

Their gas, a regional chain, was $3.89. Less than the gym guy's. I almost went back to tell him but I was over it. Filling the car out in the middle of the desert in just gym clothes takes the resolve out of me fast.

I remember the Carter fuel shortages. People "on-line" early in the morning. All that.

I don't remember that I panicked much about it at the time. Just went and got gas. I don't personally remember lines, just in the paper.

There was trouble with gas prices not very long ago. 2008. I remember the jokes about an "arm and a leg" on the price board. But those prices were a bit lower than we have this week.

They say this is because of Libya. Yeah. I haven't seen a news event yet that couldn't be attributed to profiteering. The same day!

I am not worried about it. I personally don't drive any further than Lynda at the supermarket. John does but even that isn't a commute exactly. We might do 200 miles a week at most. 20 miles a gallon (it is a Volvo after all) makes that about 10 gallons a week. Ten bucks more now. Maybe more later.

We can blow ten bucks without blinking.

Mostly, I feel the effect on the old portfolio. The market panics when oil goes up in price.

Up and down. The market. We squeal. What is it going to be like when oil starts to run out forever?

On the chart, nominal price means the actual present price unadjusted for inflation.

Labels: automobiles, economy

SO SAD

It is not news that the City of Detroit has disintegrated but nothing is a sadder symbol of the human suffering there than these pictures of the decline and fall. Beautiful buildings, all but gone.

Detroit in Ruins.

Most of these are public buildings.

Churches, theaters, grand architecture.

Labels: economy

BEANTOWN NO LONGER A BACKWATER

I still have some Boston pride.

It is good to see that the city is in the running along with New York, of course, for most busy financial fraud.

Boston emerges as a major hub in insider probe

A highly photoshopped night view of the Boston Financial District.

When I was a kid, I came to Boston in 1958 and the tallest building on the east side was the Customs House seen on the right, the clock. And in the Back Bay, there was the old John Hancock building with the weather light.

All the rest is since then.

Well, that was almost 60 years ago.

Labels: Boston, economy, finance

TAX CUT FACTS

Here is my man Austan Goolsbee with his White Board to tell us and the rest of the restive Democrats why the compromise is needed to pass.

Labels: Administration Obama, economy