esrosedotblog

I WAS WAITING FOR THIS

It has irked me that some pollsters and analysts have been using the term "statistical tie" for this election. When, in fact, Obama is ahead 3% or even more.

I suspect that it comes out of an ignorance of statistics or, more likely, a desire to inject more drama in the situation. Which, I think, is plenty dramatic enough.

Kevin Drum has seen this too and calls it out.

One Last Encore for the Great "Statistical Tie" Fallacy

It turns out when polls are aggregated or even when they are not, the idea that the margin of error negates the result is bogus. And Drum explains why. A little wonkily but then it is a wonk's question of a media hype.

I took statistics and remember it as a time of great travail. It is not a simple science and, at many times, is an art.

When put in the hands of people who want to sell papers or attract eyeballs, it is a neat tool to obfuscate and in this case show that Obama's lead which is real is somehow an illusion.

It is not an illusion. He is ahead.

Just ask the Romneys.

Try this:

For the record, as of today Pollster has Obama ahead by 4.3%; RCP has Obama ahead by 4.0%; Sam Wang's meta-margin has Obama ahead by 5.06%; and Nate Silver has Obama ahead by 3.9%. I think it's pretty safe to say that, at this moment in time, Obama is comfortably ahead.

Labels: elections, general election 2012, Re-election of Barack Obama, Romney