esrosedotblog

PROGNOSTICATORS

It is amusing to see all the furor of changing polls for Clinton and Romney in Iowa.

They are changing tactics because of it.

But the reality is that the caucus system is so complex that polls are meaningless.

Well, they do project an overall state preference or view which caucus members might take under advisement.

But it ain't a poll of the people who will go to the polls.

No one knows what will happen.

They changed the dates.

It is in the middle of winter.

Right after New Year's Day.

And then there is the 15% rule.

If your guy gets less than 15% in the caucus then you have to go to another candidate.

That means that Kucinich and Richardson people will take a jump.

How can you predict this?

The other thing is that it doesn't mean diddly shit.

Iowa?

Please.

But in the national political and journalistsic imagination it holds inordinate sway.

What a system.

Did I mention that I don't get to vote until February 3d?

Oh. And I am still with Hillary. Obama looks more shallow/callow and more like a loser in the general than ever. But I would vote for him if he wins the primary. Obviously.