esrosedotblog

ANALYSIS=PARALYSIS

For those who are really into the poll numbers and how they are developed, the site Current Electoral Vote Predictor (2004) is manna.

First of all, it's the electoral college, stupid. I dote on the pop-votes but they don't mean a lot; there is nothing that matters but the electorals. Rasmussen, who is a Republican, one of the good ones, does electorals but only the sure things. A few others play at it but there is no commitment. This guy, CEVP-2004, has the whole electoral thing down by the balls.

I hate to break the bad news, but the Kerry losses over the last weeks are most visible here. My man used to hold over 270 electorals but, sadly, that is all washed away in the tide by now. Nevertheless, I watch and wait on the strand waiting his ship to return. And while I am waiting there is more sand to sift through on this site than you can imagine.

Today, CEVP-2004 posts the ONLY runthough of bushGore2000 polls that I have seen. I tried to find it but gave up. Nader was also a factor then, if you recall. I had found the Clinton Dole polls and found that Clinton was running way ahead; but that was a year with Ross-Perot, so no useful comparisons there. 2000 was a close one like this is. The amazing thing is that almost all the polls were wrong then as they probably are now.

I am still interested in the polls even though I know they are wrong and that they are bad for my serenity. Which is a way of saying that this food has way too much fat and sugar in it but I am going to eat it anyway. I think that I am as interested in how they are wrong or misguided (Gallups high GOP content of RV's) as how they are right. Which is a way of saying that I am interested in the chemistry of fat and sugar and while I am eating it, I am getting interesting results like the guy who ate at Mickey D's for thirty days and made a movie and some money out of it.