esrosedotblog

POLL AXED

It is time to take a look at the polls. This bit of 'I din'kno'that' from Josh Marshall.

The additional fact to note, of course, is that incumbent presidents tend to get what they poll in head-to-head match-ups. Thus, if past races are any indicator, if a poll says Bush 46, Kerry 47, Bush will probably end up getting about 46% of the vote while Kerry will pick up most of the rest of the uncommitteds.

Make yourself happier today but checking out 2.004.com Polling Results by date. The latest Zogby is by phone which is a much higher quality poll than their usual email method. I am a Zogby respondent. Rasmussen is always more positive for Bush as is the Gallup which has been an outlier from way back. Bookmark this. It changes every time there is a poll.

If you want to REALLY get happy then go to The Current Electoral Vote Predictor. This is a great site for a personal re-education of electoral political science. Peruse the articles. And take a look at the Electoral Graph where the results are plotted since earlier this year. Kerry has almost always been ahead in electoral votes.

Now as we all remember from bush-ravaged Florida in 2000, the electorals is where it's at. The big 270 right? Now smile. But for chrisake don't get all overconfident.